Box Office Outlook – June 13

By: Bryan Montgomery

With a pair of large-scale releases driven towards two widely different demographics hitting theaters this week, the box office race is pretty clear cut but still exciting based on the possibilities within the cinema.  22 Jump Street and How to Train Your Dragon 2, both films with strong blockbuster potential, hit the theaters this week with the remnants from a strong week close behind with A Fault in Our Stars and Edge of Tomorrow.

Ultimately, the weekend is undoubtedly going to go to How to Train Your Dragon 2.  With Pixar taking a well-deserved year off prior to a two-release year in 2015, DreamWorks is essentially the only show in town for big-name animated adventures, and utilizing the sequel to one of the most successful films in the recent history of the studio is sure to procure benefits.

The first film, released in late March 2010, earned nearly $44 Million during its first week in theaters before dropping off 34%, a relatively normal number, during its second complete week.  What the sequel has that the original does not, however, is a captive audience, clear reign of their demographic, and the power conjured from a four-year lull that has only proven how strong the original movie is along with its application on a large-scale basis.  With the first film airing nationally on FX and a newly-developed television series airing in Nickelodeon, the positive buzz surrounding the How to Train Your Dragon franchise has never been higher, and the film’s 92% tomatometer is only going to feed the fire further.

On the other side is 22 Jump Street, an immensely well-marketed sequel that is also in heavy favor amongst the critics, sporting an 83% tomatometer rating heading into the weekend.  The original, which finished in blockbuster territory with over $135 million in box office revenue, opened as the top film in Mid-March of 2012, giving the sequel the opportunity to open in the much-coveted mid-June wheelhouse prior to the July 4th weekend.  I expect the sequel to benefit from star Jonah Hill’s continued popularity, only furthered by his performance in The Wolf of Wall Street, and for positive word of mouth to continue to push the film forward.

June 13 Predictions

1.)    How to Train Your Dragon 2 – $55 Million

2.)    22 Jump Street – $35 Million

3.)    Edge of Tomorrow – $17 Million

4.)    A Fault in Our Stars – $14 Million

5.)    Maleficent – $12 Million

6.)    X-Men: Days of Future Past – $9 Million

7.)    Godzilla – $5 Million

8.)    A Million Ways to Die in the West – $3.5 Million

9.)    Neighbors – $3 Million

10.)Blended – $2.5 Million

Box Office Preview: April 1-3

3 movies come out this weekend.  One about a bunny who would rather play the drums than anything else, one a science fiction thriller about a man trying to stop a bomb from going off and the other a film about a family whose house starts to creep them out.  What are they? hit the jump to find out and see where they will end up this weekend.

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